The War That Must Never Be Fought

The War That Must Never Be Fought

Dilemmas of Nuclear Deterrence

Editors: George P. Shultz, James E. Goodby
ISBN: 978-0-8179-1845-3
Publication Date: 6/1/2015

The Nuclear Dilemma in a Changing World

The War That Must Never Be Fought explores how nuclear deterrence should be understood seventy years after the first nuclear tests. These essays, edited by George P. Shultz and James E. Goodby, challenge outdated deterrence theories and show a clear need to reexamine notions from the Cold War that no longer fit present circumstances. They argue that a world without nuclear weapons is a desirable objective that is in the national security interests of the United States.

The contributors examine nuclear deterrence from the vantage points of nations in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, all of which have some form of security relationship with the United States, either cooperative or competitive. They explain, for instance, why agreement by Poland and Germany on nuclear deterrence and nuclear arms control is necessary if Europeans are to be proactive in reducing nuclear weapons in Europe and. They explore the strategic views, and resulting nuclear policies, of India and Pakistan to determine the possibilities for decoupling nuclear weapons from deterrence. They also tell why successfully reducing and ultimately eliminating the nuclear threat must be based on a combination of regional and global joint enterprises. The authors conclude with suggestions that might lead to a successful joint enterprise on security among the world’s nuclear powers.

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George P. Shultz

George P. Shultz is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He was sworn in on July 16, 1982, as the sixtieth U.S. secretary of state and served until January 20, 1989. In January 1989, he rejoined Stanford University as the Jack Steele Parker Professor of International Economics at the Graduate School of Business and as a distinguished fellow at the Hoover Institution.

For more details, please see his Hoover Institution profile.




James E. Goodby

James E. Goodby is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a senior fellow with the Center for Northeast Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution.continued




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Contents

Preface by George P. Shultz          ix
Acknowledgements          xvii

Introduction to Part One          1
1    A Bet Portrayed as a Certainty: Reassessing the Added Deterrent Value of Nuclear Weapons         
      by Benoit Pelopidas          5
2    The Nuclear Dilemma: Constants and Variables in American Strategic Policies
      by James Goodby          57
3    A Realist's Rationale for a World without Nuclear Weapons
      by Steven Pifer          81

Introduction to Part Two          109
4    The Debate Over Disarmament within NATO
      by Isabelle Williams and Steven P. Andreasen          115
5    Russia, Strategic Stability, and Nuclear Weapons
      by Pavel Podvig          143
6    Comparing German and Polish Post-Cold War Nuclear Policies: A Convergence of European Attitudes on Nuclear Disarmament and Deterrence?
      by Katarzyna Kubiak and Oliver Meier          175
7    Utility by Nuclear Deterrence in the Middle East
      by Shlomo Brom          209
8    Proliferation and Deterrence beyond the Nuclear Tipping Point in the Middle East
      by Karim Haggag          229
9    A Middle East Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Moving beyond the Stalemate
      by Peter Jones          283
10    Decoupling Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in South Asia
      by S. Paul Kapur          301
11    Getting to the Table: Prospects and Challenges for Arms Control with China
      by Michael S. Gerson          329
12    China and Global Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament
      by Li Bin          355
13    Korea: Will South Korea's Non-Nuclear Strategy Defeat North Korea's Nuclear Breakout?
      by Peter Hayes and Chung-in Moon          377
14    Japan's Disarmament Dilemma: Between the Moral Commitment and the Security Reality
      by Nobumasa Akiyama          437

Introduction to Part Three          471
15    Creating the Conditions for a World without Nuclear Weapons
     by James E. Goodby and Steven Pifer          473


About the Authors          503
Index          511



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