The Gravest Danger

The Gravest Danger

Nuclear Weapons

Author: Sidney D. Drell   Editor: James E. Goodby
ISBN: 978-0-8179-4472-8
Publication Date: 10/22/2003
Pages: 134

"I value this book because of its essence: the careful development of a framework for thinking about nuclear weapons in times punctuated by terrorist threats. All the elements are here: a relevant history, including an illuminating chart on page 6 on the time pattern of state acquisition of nuclear weapons; a virtual inventory of preventive actions; a searching examination of the circumstances when preemptive military action may be necessary; the problems of intelligence and monitoring; a new look at ballistic missile defenses; the importance of the U.S. example (as in testing); and ideas about what Russia and the United States can do with their special responsibilities. The authors develop the necessary interplay of strength and diplomacy as they address current problems. Work your way through the issues that are presented in settings in various countries. You will find, as I have, that the analytical framework will help you develop your own ideas of how to address critical problems." From the Foreword by former Secretary of State George P. Shultz

The mortal danger of nuclear weapons is unique in its terrifying potential for devastation on an unprecedented and unimaginable scale. In this book, Sidney D. Drell and James E. Goodby—each with more than twenty years' experience in national security issues both in public and private capacities—review the main policy issues surrounding nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. They address the specific actions that the community of nations—with American leadership—should take to confront and turn back the nuclear danger that imperils humanity. The nuclear genie, say the authors, cannot be put back in the bottle. Our most urgent task as a nation today is to successfully manage, contain, and reduce the grave danger of nuclear weapons—whether in the hands of adversaries or friendly states. This book hopes to stimulate active public dialogue on this important subject.


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James E. Goodby

James E. Goodby is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a senior fellow with the Center for Northeast Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution.continued




Sidney D. Drell

Sidney D. Drell is a senior fellow, by courtesy, at the Hoover Institution and professor of theoretical physics (emeritus) at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC), Stanford University.

continued



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TABLE OF CONTENTS


 

Foreword by George P. Shultz

vii

 

Preface

xi

 

Acknowledgments

xiii

 

INTRODUCTION: THE NUCLEAR DANGER

1

I.

FROM THE PAST TO THE PRESENT
Was the Past a Precedent or an Exception? 11
U.S. Policies 15
Emerging U.S.-Russian Relations 18
A Nuclear Nightmare 22
Containment and Deterrence 25

11

II.

LOOKING FORWARD
The Security Environment of the Future 29
Motivations for Acquiring Nuclear Weapons 32
The Practice of Preventive or
   Preemptive Military Action 34
Assessing the Utility of Preventive or
   Preemptive Military Action 38
The Terrorist Threat 44

29

III.

DENIAL POLICIES
Denial Policies at the Level of States 50
The Problem of Monitoring
   Nuclear Proliferation Activities 53
The Role of Ballistic Missile Defense 58

50

IV.

DEFINING DIPLOMACY’S TASK
The Power of U.S. Example 65
Mixed Signals Regarding Nuclear Weapons 68
The Corrosive Effect of a
   Strategy of Unilateral Action 72

62

V.

ACHIEVING ROLLBACK:
THE INSTRUMENTS OF DIPLOMACY
Targeted Diplomacy 74
U.S.-Russia Responsibilities 77
Cooperative Threat Reduction 83
Global Norms: The Non-Proliferation Treaty 87
Global Norms: The Comprehensive
   Test Ban Treaty 88
Building New Regimes: Avoiding Miscalculation
   and Strengthening Defense Cooperation 95
International Organizations:
   The International Atomic Energy Agency 97

73

VI.

APPLYING RECOMMENDED POLICIES
TO SPECIFIC CASES
China 104
North Korea 106
Iran 110
Israel 115
India and Pakistan 117

103

VII.

CONCLUSION
A Call to Action 122

122

 

About the Authors

125

 

Index

127


The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, founded at Stanford University in 1919 by Herbert Hoover, who went on to become the thirty-first president of the United States, is an interdisciplinary research center for advanced study on domestic and international affairs. The views expressed in its publications are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, officers, or Board of Overseers of the Hoover Institution.

www.hoover.org

Hoover Institution Press Publication No. 524
Copyright © 2003 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without written permission of the publisher.

First printing 2003
09 08 07 06 05 04 03 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Manufactured in the United States of America
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1984.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Drell, Sidney D. (Sidney David), 1926–
The gravest danger : nuclear weapons / Sidney D. Drell and
James E. Goodby.
p. cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 0-8179-4472-9 (alk. paper)
1. Nuclear weapons. 2. Nuclear nonproliferation.
3. Nuclear terrorism. 4. Nuclear disarmament.
5. World politics—21st century.
I. Goodby, James E. II. Title.
U264.D56 2003
327.1'747—dc22
2003061774

 



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